The First Law of Sport
Predicting who will be victorious at sporting events isn’t guesswork — just do the science
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- Simon Barnes
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Sir Isaac Newton understood momentum as something you could calculate precisely: p = mv and all that. But in sport, momentum is the mysterious essence that allows individuals and teams to win tournaments. As we move into a weekend that brings us the finals of the men’s and women’s singles at Wimbledon and the final of the European Championship, the question everyone is asking is, who has momentum?
It’s not necessary to play seven blinders in a row to win either Wimbledon or the Euros. It’s more usual for the winner to start slowly, overcome a few setbacks, look like a goner and somehow get there in the end. The emerging champion tends to get better with every passing round, saving the best for the final.
It’s an especially difficult process for footballers. Tournament football is nothing like a domestic season and even the luckiest players only get a chance to win once every two years. It’s easier for tennis players, but even for them a two-week, seven-round grand-slam tournament only happens four times a year.
How can we get a better understanding of sport’s mysterious concept of non-Newtonian momentum? How can we get a handle on the triple-event of the coming weekend? Let’s try some case studies. Denmark hadn’t qualified for the Euros of 1992 when Yugoslavia were disqualified on the grounds that Yugoslavia no longer existed, meaning Denmark, runners-up in their qualifying group, found themselves taking part.
The players were unprepared, turned up and, as expected, were pretty terrible. They drew 0-0 with England and then lost to the hosts, Sweden. So their ultra-defensive coach, Richard Moller Nielsen, brought in striker Henrik Larsen and that freed up fellow forward Brian Laudrup. They were still a defensive team but now they could counter-attack. And they did so, beating France to go through to the semi-finals.
Peter Schmeichel of Denmark saves a penalty to send Denmark into the final of Euro 1992 Getty
Peter Schmeichel, their goalkeeper, had just completed his first season with Manchester United – and he made the difference. His saves allowed them to draw 2-2 with the Netherlands and then beat them on penalties, with Schmeichel making an important save. In the final in Gothenburg they beat Germany, thanks in part to two remarkable stops from Schmeichel.
Venus Williams was playing with intimidating power
Simon Barnes
In 2000 the Williams sisters were ready to takeover Wimbledon. Venus, the elder, was 20 and she got through the first four rounds by playing with intimidating power: and that brought her up against Martina Hingis. It was a three-set classic of guile against power. Power won – and that was the turning point.
Venus beat her little sister Serena in the semis and then crashed her way past Lindsay Davenport in the final. Sometimes a tournament seems to demonstrate not the eternal uncertainties of sport but the relentless operation of destiny.
That’s how it seemed at Wimbledon in 2013, when Rafael Nadal went out in the first round and Roger Federer lost in the second. Meanwhile, Andy Murray looked like he was going to lose his quarter-final against Fernando Verdasco. But he staged a comeback, and was able to alchemise the near-defeat into a new confidence. He dropped the first set in his semi but went on to beat Jerzy Janowicz in four.
I was there at Centre Court for the final against Novak Djokovic and in the second set I wrote in my notebook, “Bloody hell, he’s going to win in straight sets”. And he did.
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So, three examples of how to win a tournament, each one showcasing the elusive quality of momentum, that combination of inner belief, good fortune, inexplicable runs of luck and the ability to seize an opportunity. Can we reduce all that to a simple equation? How about skill times will divided by luck? Where v is victory – V = (S x W) ÷ L.
Authors
Simon BarnesAuthor and journalist
Simon Barnes is a sports and wildlife writer, and is the author of a number of books including the recently published The Green Planet
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