Holding court

There’s no certainty in sport, but perhaps it’s time for a new hierarchy at Wimbledon, says Simon Barnes

Week 27 Wimbledon Simon Barnes

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Wimbledon is all about hierarchies. I look up to him, but I look down on him... perhaps you remember the Class Sketch on The Frost Report all those years ago, with John Cleese looking down on Ronnie Barker, who looked down on Ronnie Corbett, who always got the punchline.

I’m not just talking about who sits in the Royal Box, who has a Centre Court seat and who is still queuing in Wimbledon Park. The sport everyone has come to watch is also based on hierarchies. According to current rankings, Novak Djokovic looks up to Jannik Sinner but down on Jack Draper.

Sometimes the hierarchy is rigidly imposed, the lesser player cruising through in straight sets as if by right. Sometimes it’s challenged, and yet the higher-ranked player mysteriously finds the edge in the deciding set. But every now and then the hierarchy is overturned, sometimes as a one-off, and sometimes permanently.

Week 27 Wimbledon Simon Barnes Jannik Sinner

Wimbledon 2025 champion Jannik Sinner.

I used to cherish a theory that the female hierarchy was essentially more stable than the male’s, for that tends to be the case among social primates. Great champions like Martina Navratilova, Chris Evert, Steffi Graf and Serena Williams won again and again, while on the men’s side it was all rough and tumble, a world without certainties.

But alas, I’ve been forced to abandon that notion. For a long time the men’s side was all about the three players at the top – Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal – and the rest scrapping for the minor prizes. We expected a return to the free-for-all as these great players aged and the first two retired; instead we got a stable duopoly with Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz who won nine grand slam tournaments in succession between them.

So many times in tennis, the victory goes to the player who expects it

Alcaraz is out with a wrist injury but that doesn’t throw the tournament wide open. Quite the opposite, Sinner is now heavy favourite to win. Sure, he lost from two sets and 5–1 up in the French Open second round but that was clearly a physical problem, one easily cured by a break. Djokovic is now 39 and aiming for a 25th slam, with Alexander Zverev third in the betting. Draper, the top Brit when fit, is capable of giving the crowds something to cheer, for a while at least.

The situation among the women is nowhere near as clear. Any one of half a dozen players has an obvious chance. Aryna Sabalenka’s mix of power and emotion makes her a compelling if narrow favourite, while the expansive style of Elena Rybakina, champion this year at the Australian Open, always looks good on grass.

Week 27 Wimbledon Simon Barnes Aryna Sabalenka

Belarus's Aryna Sabalenka. Getty

Mirra Andreeva has been tipped as champion for years and is still only 19. She won the French Open a few weeks ago for her first slam and she goes into Wimbledon in the best possible shape. She is a treat to watch; at her best she lures the big hitters into complex traps. She reached the quarter- finals at Wimbledon last year, so clearly she can make her skills work on the problematic surface of grass.

And what of Emma Raducanu? She is a woman haunted by victory in the 2021 US Open, which she won without dropping a single set. But since then she has known little but uncertainty. She looked almost back to her best at Queen’s a fortnight back, when she reached the final, so she might surprise us all over again.

So many times in tennis the victory goes to the player who expects it, the lower-ranked player always defiant but ultimately reinforcing the existing hierarchy. But the system is forever in flux and the eternal mystery of the grand slam tournaments is the way a player can, for no obvious reason, get hot, win matches, upset apple-carts, destroy the existing hierarchy and create a new one.

The stable situation of the men’s tournament could easily disintegrate and on the women’s side, we might yet see a player able set herself up as a champion for the ages. There is no such thing as certainty in sport.

Wimbledon covered

The BBC says that this year’s coverage will be the most comprehensive ever.

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Wimbledon coverage begins at 10.30am on Monday on BBC Two and continues all week on BBC One, BBC Two, Radio 5 Live, iPlayer and red button

Authors

Simon BarnesAuthor and journalist

Simon Barnes is a sports and wildlife writer, and is the author of a number of books including the recently published The Green Planet

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